Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Thomas 51.9% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 50.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.5%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Nelson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Thomas
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Thomas
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
50.3% (652)
+0.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
61.5% (104)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
54.2% (120)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thomas
Home
52.9% (654)
52.0% (400)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Nelson
Thomas
P1
48.4%
49.6%
P2
54.3%
55.4%
P3
50.5%
51.0%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |