Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Thomas 51.6% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 66.8%
Defensive zone
Thomas 65.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 65.8%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Nelson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
13
(33 meetings)
20
13
Nelson
Thomas
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
5
Nelson
Thomas
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
6
Nelson
Thomas
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Nelson
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
51.1% (5,387)
-3.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
55.8% (927)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
50.2% (697)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,967).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thomas
Home
50.1% (5,878)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Nelson
Thomas
P1
48.7%
50.7%
P2
48.6%
53.0%
P3
47.7%
50.8%
OT
45.6%
59.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |