Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Hartman 45.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 70.2%
Defensive zone
Hartman 76.7%
Neutral zone
Hartman 70.2%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 71.5%
28.5%
71.5%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Nelson
Hartman
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
5
Nelson
Hartman
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Nelson
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
3
Nelson
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
45.1% (874)
+5.8%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
47.4% (95)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
37.5% (16)
+5.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
52.9% (654)
45.0% (515)
Away
48.9% (658)
45.3% (470)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
48.4%
47.3%
P2
54.3%
40.1%
P3
50.5%
48.3%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |