Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Hartman 45.4% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 30-18 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 74.3%
Defensive zone
Hartman 74.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 74.2%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 74.2%
25.8%
74.2%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
30
(48 meetings)
18
30
Nelson
Hartman
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
9
16
Nelson
Hartman
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
6
8
Nelson
Hartman
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
3
6
Nelson
Hartman
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
45.2% (4,279)
+2.7%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
47.3% (446)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
42.4% (262)
+1.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,596).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
50.1% (5,878)
46.7% (2,589)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
43.7% (2,398)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
48.7%
46.1%
P2
48.6%
42.9%
P3
47.7%
46.7%
OT
45.6%
53.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |