Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Couturier on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Couturier 53.6% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.4%
Defensive zone
Couturier 59.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Nelson
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Nelson
Couturier
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Couturier
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
6
Nelson
Couturier
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Couturier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.9% (792)
-3.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
62.9% (70)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
51.3% (234)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Nelson
Couturier
Home
52.9% (654)
51.4% (541)
Away
48.9% (658)
56.4% (555)
By Period
Nelson
Couturier
P1
48.4%
56.0%
P2
54.3%
52.6%
P3
50.5%
54.3%
OT
41.2%
44.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 14:42 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 19:13 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 19:57 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |