Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Monahan 52.5% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 52.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Nelson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Nelson
Monahan
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
5
Nelson
Monahan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Nelson
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Nelson
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.0% (874)
-2.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
54.7% (161)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
47.5% (101)
-4.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Nelson
Monahan
Home
52.9% (654)
53.8% (558)
Away
48.9% (658)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Nelson
Monahan
P1
48.4%
49.5%
P2
54.3%
54.8%
P3
50.5%
52.8%
OT
41.2%
61.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |