Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (79% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Monahan 51.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 53-32 in 85 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Nelson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
53
(85 meetings)
32
53
Nelson
Monahan
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
13
20
Nelson
Monahan
33 total
Defensive Zone
Even
14
14
Nelson
Monahan
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
5
19
Nelson
Monahan
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
51.1% (11,407)
-3.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
53.6% (2,582)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
45.9% (772)
-2.1%
On even strength, Monahan has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Nelson
Monahan
Home
50.1% (5,878)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Nelson
Monahan
P1
48.7%
51.0%
P2
48.6%
51.7%
P3
47.7%
51.0%
OT
45.6%
53.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 18:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |