Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 50.5%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Aho 50.5% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 61.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Aho
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
50.5% (878)
+0.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
53.5% (144)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
44.3% (61)
-0.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
52.9% (654)
53.8% (571)
Away
48.9% (658)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
48.4%
49.0%
P2
54.3%
51.7%
P3
50.5%
50.3%
OT
41.2%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | OT | 01:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |