Brock Nelson vs Sebastian Aho

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Sebastian Aho holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 29 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Nelson 48.3% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor Aho leads 43-38 in 81 meetings
Offensive zone Aho 60.0%
Defensive zone Nelson 65.6%
Neutral zone Nelson 54.5%
Result Brock Nelson favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Nelson Aho
Head-to-Head Record
38 - 43 (81 meetings)
38
43
Nelson Aho
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Aho

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
10
19
Nelson Aho
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
7
Nelson Aho
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
15
17
Nelson Aho
32 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
50.2% (6,646)
-2.3%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
58.9% (1,310)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
46.5% (465)
-2.7%
On power play, Aho has a +4.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
50.1% (5,878)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
48.7%
51.1%
P2
48.6%
52.1%
P3
47.7%
50.8%
OT
45.6%
48.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.4%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%
55.5%
48.3%
Aho
60.0%
50.5%
51.3%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 3, 2026 3 17:13 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Jan 3, 2026 2 02:55 Defensive Brock Nelson
Jan 3, 2026 2 00:33 Defensive Sebastian Aho
Oct 23, 2025 OT 01:36 Defensive Brock Nelson
Oct 23, 2025 3 12:31 Neutral Brock Nelson
Oct 23, 2025 3 12:20 Defensive Sebastian Aho
Oct 23, 2025 3 00:57 Offensive Brock Nelson
Oct 23, 2025 2 18:39 Offensive Brock Nelson
Oct 23, 2025 1 12:41 Neutral Brock Nelson
Jan 25, 2025 3 14:36 Neutral Brock Nelson
Jan 25, 2025 3 14:19 Defensive Brock Nelson
Jan 25, 2025 3 10:41 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Jan 25, 2025 3 02:03 Defensive Brock Nelson
Jan 25, 2025 2 07:23 Neutral Brock Nelson
Jan 25, 2025 2 04:17 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Jan 25, 2025 1 12:14 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Jan 25, 2025 1 09:30 Offensive Sebastian Aho
Jan 25, 2025 1 06:30 Neutral Brock Nelson
Jan 25, 2025 1 03:21 Neutral Sebastian Aho
Dec 7, 2024 3 06:50 Defensive Brock Nelson