Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 43-38 in 81 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 60.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
43
(81 meetings)
38
43
Nelson
Aho
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
10
19
Nelson
Aho
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
13
7
Nelson
Aho
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
15
17
Nelson
Aho
32 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
50.2% (6,646)
-2.3%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
58.9% (1,310)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
46.5% (465)
-2.7%
On power play, Aho has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
50.1% (5,878)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
48.7%
51.1%
P2
48.6%
52.1%
P3
47.7%
50.8%
OT
45.6%
48.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | OT | 01:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |