Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Wright 41.4% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 72.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.2%
Neutral zone
Wright 56.4%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Nelson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Wright
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
3
Nelson
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Wright
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Wright
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
39.7% (461)
+11.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
41.0% (61)
+18.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
0.0% (1)
+43.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Wright is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Nelson
Wright
Home
52.9% (654)
39.5% (286)
Away
48.9% (658)
40.1% (237)
By Period
Nelson
Wright
P1
48.4%
40.2%
P2
54.3%
36.7%
P3
50.5%
42.9%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Shane Wright |