Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Wright on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Wright 43.3% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wright 58.1%
Defensive zone
Wright 50.5%
Neutral zone
Wright 50.4%
Result
Shane Wright favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Nelson
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Wright
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wright
0
3
Nelson
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Wright
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
42.7% (1,326)
+5.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
45.1% (133)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
33.3% (6)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,080).
Home / Away
Nelson
Wright
Home
50.1% (5,878)
44.2% (746)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
41.4% (719)
By Period
Nelson
Wright
P1
48.7%
44.5%
P2
48.6%
40.5%
P3
47.7%
44.0%
OT
45.6%
20.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 04:41 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:34 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 15:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |