Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Crosby 55.1% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 68.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.5%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Nelson
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Crosby
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
2
Nelson
Crosby
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.3% (1,025)
-2.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
64.7% (249)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
60.0% (15)
-16.6%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Crosby is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (914).
Home / Away
Nelson
Crosby
Home
52.9% (654)
56.9% (675)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Nelson
Crosby
P1
48.4%
55.1%
P2
54.3%
53.1%
P3
50.5%
58.5%
OT
41.2%
54.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 02:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 07:38 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |