Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 67 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Crosby 53.5% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 100-84 in 184 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Nelson
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
84
-
100
(184 meetings)
84
100
Nelson
Crosby
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
26
31
Nelson
Crosby
57 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
31
29
Nelson
Crosby
60 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
27
40
Nelson
Crosby
67 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
52.8% (18,031)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
57.4% (4,741)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
47.0% (766)
-3.2%
On even strength, Crosby has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,886).
Home / Away
Nelson
Crosby
Home
50.1% (5,878)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
Nelson
Crosby
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
48.6%
53.8%
P3
47.7%
53.3%
OT
45.6%
49.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 02:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 07:38 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:03 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 16:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |