Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 81.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Nelson
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
57.1% (368)
-6.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
55.2% (96)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (10)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
52.9% (654)
53.9% (230)
Away
48.9% (658)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
48.4%
56.7%
P2
54.3%
54.1%
P3
50.5%
59.2%
OT
41.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |