Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 33 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 45-41 in 86 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 53.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
45
(86 meetings)
41
45
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
15
16
Nelson
Stamkos
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
12
21
Nelson
Stamkos
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
14
8
Nelson
Stamkos
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
50.5% (9,825)
-2.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
55.2% (1,729)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
49.6% (827)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
50.1% (5,878)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
48.7%
49.2%
P2
48.6%
52.7%
P3
47.7%
50.9%
OT
45.6%
54.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |