Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 87.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 76.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
13
(20 meetings)
7
13
Nelson
Hertl
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Nelson
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Nelson
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
58.7% (858)
-7.8%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
55.8% (285)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
62.9% (35)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
52.9% (654)
60.1% (599)
Away
48.9% (658)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
48.4%
52.4%
P2
54.3%
63.9%
P3
50.5%
58.5%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 01:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |