Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 28-18 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 79.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.3%
80.3%
19.7%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
28
(46 meetings)
18
28
Nelson
Hertl
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
12
Nelson
Hertl
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
10
Nelson
Hertl
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Nelson
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
53.9% (8,303)
-6.0%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
59.2% (1,995)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
46.3% (806)
-2.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
50.1% (5,878)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
48.6%
54.2%
P3
47.7%
55.3%
OT
45.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 01:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |