Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 73.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Nelson
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Nelson
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Karlsson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
3
Nelson
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
4
Nelson
Karlsson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
58.6% (597)
-7.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
57.9% (57)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
51.9% (52)
+0.0%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Nelson
Karlsson
Home
52.5% (590)
59.6% (344)
Away
51.7% (619)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Nelson
Karlsson
P1
50.5%
53.1%
P2
54.4%
62.1%
P3
51.4%
60.1%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |