Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.7%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 50.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.9%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Nelson
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
58.5% (135)
-7.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
80.0% (5)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
44.4% (18)
-1.0%
On power play, Karlsson has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Nelson
Karlsson
Home
52.9% (654)
63.7% (91)
Away
48.9% (658)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Nelson
Karlsson
P1
48.4%
54.4%
P2
54.3%
66.7%
P3
50.5%
51.9%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | William Karlsson |