Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +21.6% FO% edge overall. Ritchie wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ritchie 39.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-21.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ritchie 70.2%
Defensive zone
Ritchie 74.3%
Neutral zone
Ritchie 81.5%
Result
Calum Ritchie favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Ritchie
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Ritchie
Hertl
Last 6: Ritchie 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ritchie
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
36.1% (296)
58.7% (858)
-22.6%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
55.8% (285)
-10.3%
On even strength, Hertl has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ritchie is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (195).
Ritchie shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Ritchie
Hertl
Home
37.7% (162)
60.1% (599)
Away
35.2% (145)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Ritchie
Hertl
P1
33.3%
52.4%
P2
38.3%
63.9%
P3
37.6%
58.5%
Final 5 min
38.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ritchie
34.0%▲
32.0%
36.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Calum Ritchie |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |