Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +17.7% FO% edge overall. Ritchie wins 35.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ritchie 39.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (-17.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ritchie 84.0%
Defensive zone
Ritchie 81.8%
Neutral zone
Ritchie 84.5%
Result
Calum Ritchie favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Ritchie
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Ritchie
Hertl
Last 6: Ritchie 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ritchie
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ritchie
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
36.1% (302)
53.9% (8,303)
-17.8%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
59.2% (1,995)
-9.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ritchie is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Ritchie shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Ritchie
Hertl
Home
38.1% (168)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
34.9% (146)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Ritchie
Hertl
P1
33.7%
53.6%
P2
38.7%
54.2%
P3
37.3%
55.3%
Final 5 min
39.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ritchie
34.0%▲
32.0%
36.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Calum Ritchie |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |