Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Verhaeghe wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Verhaeghe 45.3% vs Paul 52.2% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Verhaeghe 89.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 55.8%
Neutral zone
Verhaeghe 72.7%
Result
Carter Verhaeghe favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Verhaeghe
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Verhaeghe
Paul
Last 7: Verhaeghe 2-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Verhaeghe
1
0
Verhaeghe
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Verhaeghe
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Verhaeghe
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Verhaeghe
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (299)
52.6% (3,823)
-9.8%
Power Play
48.4% (64)
56.2% (484)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
46.9% (576)
+53.1%
On penalty kill, Verhaeghe has a +53.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Verhaeghe is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Verhaeghe shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Verhaeghe
Paul
Home
45.1% (164)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
43.0% (200)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Verhaeghe
Paul
P1
45.2%
53.8%
P2
44.4%
51.0%
P3
42.3%
52.2%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Verhaeghe
34.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Carter Verhaeghe |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Carter Verhaeghe |