Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Cizikas wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 54.1% vs Dowd 48.6% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cizikas 75.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 78.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Cizikas
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Cizikas
Dowd
Last 8: Cizikas 4-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Cizikas
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Cizikas
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (554)
51.0% (671)
+4.2%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
0.0% (2)
+100.0%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
41.5% (224)
+5.0%
On power play, Cizikas has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Cizikas is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Cizikas shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Dowd
Home
54.8% (301)
48.2% (471)
Away
54.8% (299)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Cizikas
Dowd
P1
58.7%
48.3%
P2
56.1%
46.8%
P3
50.5%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
70.0%▲
60.5%
54.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 08:44 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |