Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 59.7% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 52.0% vs Nazar 46.2% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 84.7%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 82.8%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 67.1%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 76.5%
76.5%
23.5%
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Last 5: Mittelstadt 5-0 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (128)
46.8% (393)
+4.8%
Power Play
60.0% (25)
49.4% (81)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
16.7% (30)
+83.3%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +83.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Mittelstadt is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nazar is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (376).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Home
60.7% (89)
45.7% (243)
Away
43.1% (65)
45.2% (261)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Nazar
P1
46.3%
47.0%
P2
52.9%
42.9%
P3
58.6%
45.3%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.3%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
48.0%▼
53.0%
53.2%
Nazar
46.0%▼
47.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |