Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Nazar shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.5% vs Nazar 47.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 58.2%
Defensive zone
Nazar 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nazar 57.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Last 5: Mittelstadt 5-0 Nazar
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
2
0
Mittelstadt
Nazar
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (141)
47.2% (574)
+2.4%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
51.0% (143)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
30.2% (43)
+69.8%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +69.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nazar shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Nazar
Home
58.7% (92)
45.0% (329)
Away
42.0% (81)
48.5% (431)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Nazar
P1
47.7%
47.8%
P2
48.2%
43.4%
P3
56.7%
48.4%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.9%
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |