Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Paul 53.6% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 51.0%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 62.6%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 56.2%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Stephenson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Stephenson
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Stephenson
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
53.7% (354)
-1.7%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
59.0% (61)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
52.9% (34)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Stephenson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Stephenson shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Paul
Home
53.1% (672)
55.1% (216)
Away
51.1% (628)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Stephenson
Paul
P1
54.2%
54.9%
P2
50.7%
54.5%
P3
52.0%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
52.1%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 10:25 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |