Chandler Stephenson vs Sebastian Aho
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Aho 50.5% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 69.7%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 74.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 51.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Stephenson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stephenson
Aho
Last 6: Stephenson 2-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Stephenson
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
1
0
Stephenson
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Stephenson
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
50.5% (878)
+1.5%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
53.5% (144)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
44.3% (61)
-4.8%
On power play, Stephenson has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stephenson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Stephenson shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Aho
Home
53.1% (672)
53.8% (571)
Away
51.1% (628)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Stephenson
Aho
P1
54.2%
49.0%
P2
50.7%
51.7%
P3
52.0%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
52.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 15:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:55 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:04 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |