Chandler Stephenson vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Stephenson wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.4%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 70.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 62.4%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Stephenson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Stephenson
Stamkos
Last 9: Stephenson 5-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
1
0
Stephenson
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Stephenson
Stamkos
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
57.1% (368)
-5.1%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
55.2% (96)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
50.0% (10)
-10.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Stephenson is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Stephenson shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Stamkos
Home
53.1% (672)
53.9% (230)
Away
51.1% (628)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Stephenson
Stamkos
P1
54.2%
56.7%
P2
50.7%
54.1%
P3
52.0%
59.2%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
52.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 11:07 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |