Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs McDavid 48.1% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 72.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.2%
31.8%
68.2%
Coyle
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Coyle
McDavid
Last 10: Coyle 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
6
Coyle
McDavid
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
1
Coyle
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
47.7% (686)
+4.6%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
49.3% (75)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
48.9% (45)
-4.4%
On power play, McDavid has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Coyle
McDavid
Home
49.0% (567)
50.0% (412)
Away
52.0% (540)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Coyle
McDavid
P1
49.5%
48.0%
P2
49.4%
48.5%
P3
52.6%
47.1%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:29 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:06 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |