Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Larkin 52.2% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.5%
Defensive zone
Coyle 67.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Coyle
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Coyle
Larkin
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
5
Coyle
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
1
Coyle
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
51.1% (915)
+1.2%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
59.4% (261)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
48.2% (168)
-3.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Home / Away
Coyle
Larkin
Home
49.0% (567)
51.7% (686)
Away
52.0% (540)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Coyle
Larkin
P1
49.5%
52.5%
P2
49.4%
52.7%
P3
52.6%
51.4%
OT
46.2%
61.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |