Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 27 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Larkin 52.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 46-43 in 89 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 63.0%
Neutral zone
Coyle 56.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Coyle
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
46
(89 meetings)
43
46
Coyle
Larkin
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
15
22
Coyle
Larkin
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
19
8
Coyle
Larkin
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
16
Coyle
Larkin
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,898)
51.6% (9,056)
-2.2%
Power Play
50.0% (794)
58.6% (2,140)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,100)
50.2% (1,124)
-6.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,015).
Coyle shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,444).
Home / Away
Coyle
Larkin
Home
49.8% (4,865)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
47.9% (4,927)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
Coyle
Larkin
P1
49.5%
52.7%
P2
48.3%
53.1%
P3
48.8%
52.0%
OT
49.0%
58.4%
Final 5 min
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 02:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |