Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Evans 55.0% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 50.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 70.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 59.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Coyle
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Coyle
Evans
Last 7: Coyle 4-3 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Coyle
Evans
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
55.6% (522)
-3.3%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
72.7% (11)
-28.3%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
55.2% (210)
-10.7%
On power play, Evans has a +28.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Evans is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Coyle
Evans
Home
49.0% (567)
54.7% (402)
Away
52.0% (540)
56.9% (341)
By Period
Coyle
Evans
P1
49.5%
57.9%
P2
49.4%
55.2%
P3
52.6%
53.6%
OT
46.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 12:17 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 17, 2025 | OT | 03:11 | Offensive | Jake Evans |