Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Guentzel 48.1% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 86.8%
Defensive zone
Coyle 73.7%
Neutral zone
Guentzel 57.8%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Coyle
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Coyle
Guentzel
Last 9: Coyle 3-6 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
Coyle
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Guentzel
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
Coyle
Guentzel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
49.1% (230)
+3.2%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
44.9% (118)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
46.2% (26)
-1.7%
On even strength, Coyle has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. Guentzel is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Coyle
Guentzel
Home
49.0% (567)
50.2% (205)
Away
52.0% (540)
44.4% (169)
By Period
Coyle
Guentzel
P1
49.5%
47.6%
P2
49.4%
49.0%
P3
52.6%
46.2%
OT
46.2%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.1%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:15 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:15 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 13:16 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |