Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Frost 56.4% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 97.0%
Defensive zone
Frost 61.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 82.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 83.8%
16.2%
83.8%
Coyle
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Coyle
Frost
Last 8: Coyle 6-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
56.0% (755)
-3.7%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
60.1% (173)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
88.9% (9)
-44.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
Coyle
Frost
Home
49.0% (567)
57.3% (497)
Away
52.0% (540)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Coyle
Frost
P1
49.5%
60.2%
P2
49.4%
56.0%
P3
52.6%
54.8%
OT
46.2%
63.6%
Final 5 min
49.1%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:59 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:40 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |