Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Dowd 48.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 82.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 54.1%
Neutral zone
Coyle 65.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 71.9%
71.9%
28.1%
Coyle
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Dowd
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
0
Coyle
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Coyle
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
51.2% (666)
+1.1%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
0.0% (2)
+44.4%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
41.5% (224)
+3.0%
On power play, Coyle has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Coyle
Dowd
Home
49.0% (567)
48.5% (466)
Away
52.0% (540)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Coyle
Dowd
P1
49.5%
48.4%
P2
49.4%
46.8%
P3
52.6%
51.3%
OT
46.2%
30.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |