Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 84.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.1%
Neutral zone
Coyle 50.7%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Coyle
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Coyle
Dowd
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
17
1
Coyle
Dowd
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
15
Coyle
Dowd
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
8
Coyle
Dowd
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,898)
52.3% (6,036)
-2.9%
Power Play
50.0% (794)
56.1% (164)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,100)
44.1% (1,638)
-0.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Coyle is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,777).
Coyle shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Coyle
Dowd
Home
49.8% (4,865)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
47.9% (4,927)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Coyle
Dowd
P1
49.5%
51.5%
P2
48.3%
50.4%
P3
48.8%
50.3%
OT
49.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:13 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:39 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |