Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 50.9%
Defensive zone
Coyle 54.9%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.9%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Coyle
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Coyle
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Coyle
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
49.7% (292)
+2.6%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
50.0% (6)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
47.2% (36)
-2.7%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Bjugstad is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Home / Away
Coyle
Bjugstad
Home
49.0% (567)
48.7% (193)
Away
52.0% (540)
50.4% (141)
By Period
Coyle
Bjugstad
P1
49.5%
41.5%
P2
49.4%
57.3%
P3
52.6%
50.0%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 02:29 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |