Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 87.2%
Defensive zone
Coyle 72.6%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 57.6%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Coyle
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Coyle
Schmaltz
Last 10: Coyle 3-7 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Schmaltz
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
5
Coyle
Schmaltz
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
45.9% (697)
+6.4%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
47.9% (117)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
48.0% (25)
-3.5%
On even strength, Coyle has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Coyle
Schmaltz
Home
49.0% (567)
44.9% (434)
Away
52.0% (540)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Coyle
Schmaltz
P1
49.5%
41.5%
P2
49.4%
46.7%
P3
52.6%
51.1%
OT
46.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:57 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:52 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 03:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 08:21 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 15:08 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |