Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 74.8%
Defensive zone
Coyle 70.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.5%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Coyle
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Coyle
Cates
Last 6: Coyle 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Coyle
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
1
Coyle
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Coyle
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
45.5% (756)
+6.8%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
42.1% (114)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
44.7% (47)
-0.2%
On even strength, Coyle has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Coyle
Cates
Home
49.0% (567)
46.2% (468)
Away
52.0% (540)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Coyle
Cates
P1
49.5%
46.0%
P2
49.4%
47.5%
P3
52.6%
42.1%
OT
46.2%
18.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |