Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 80.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 75.4%
Neutral zone
Cates 75.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 76.3%
23.7%
76.3%
Coyle
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
12
(17 meetings)
5
12
Coyle
Cates
Last 10: Coyle 3-7 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Coyle
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
4
5
Coyle
Cates
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
5
Coyle
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,898)
44.1% (2,786)
+5.3%
Power Play
50.0% (794)
42.9% (254)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,100)
34.9% (373)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Coyle has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,015).
Coyle shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Coyle
Cates
Home
49.8% (4,865)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
47.9% (4,927)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Coyle
Cates
P1
49.5%
44.5%
P2
48.3%
43.7%
P3
48.8%
41.2%
OT
49.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
48.5%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:51 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 11:31 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 17:12 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 15:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 19:18 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |