Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Zacha 51.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 61.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 62.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 50.1%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Coyle
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Coyle
Zacha
Last 8: Coyle 4-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Coyle
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
0
Coyle
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Coyle
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
53.0% (700)
-0.7%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
54.1% (109)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
39.2% (74)
+5.3%
On power play, Zacha has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Coyle
Zacha
Home
49.0% (567)
51.6% (438)
Away
52.0% (540)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Coyle
Zacha
P1
49.5%
57.0%
P2
49.4%
48.9%
P3
52.6%
50.5%
OT
46.2%
42.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | OT | 04:59 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 29, 2026 | OT | 04:54 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |