Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 63.2%
Defensive zone
Coyle 74.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 56.7%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Coyle
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Coyle
O'Reilly
Last 10: Coyle 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Coyle
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
2
Coyle
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Coyle
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
55.7% (856)
-3.4%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
57.5% (233)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
50.0% (144)
-5.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Coyle
O'Reilly
Home
49.0% (567)
55.5% (616)
Away
52.0% (540)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Coyle
O'Reilly
P1
49.5%
58.1%
P2
49.4%
54.9%
P3
52.6%
53.9%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:39 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |