Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 36 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 61-40 in 101 meetings
Offensive zone
Coyle 91.8%
Defensive zone
Coyle 79.5%
Neutral zone
Coyle 83.4%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Coyle
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
61
(101 meetings)
40
61
Coyle
O'Reilly
Last 10: Coyle 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
27
Coyle
O'Reilly
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
23
17
Coyle
O'Reilly
40 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
17
Coyle
O'Reilly
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,898)
56.2% (15,290)
-6.8%
Power Play
50.0% (794)
58.7% (3,457)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,100)
51.4% (2,826)
-7.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,015).
Coyle shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Coyle
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (4,865)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
47.9% (4,927)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Coyle
O'Reilly
P1
49.5%
55.6%
P2
48.3%
57.0%
P3
48.8%
55.0%
OT
49.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:39 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:10 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:48 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 14:35 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |