Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Carrick 54.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 53.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 56.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 51.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Coyle
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Coyle
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Coyle
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
55.5% (470)
-3.2%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
66.7% (3)
-22.3%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
50.0% (58)
-5.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Carrick is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Coyle
Carrick
Home
49.0% (567)
58.6% (261)
Away
52.0% (540)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Coyle
Carrick
P1
49.5%
55.9%
P2
49.4%
53.5%
P3
52.6%
55.6%
OT
46.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:29 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:20 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |