Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Aho 51.3% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 29-22 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 78.4%
Defensive zone
Coyle 54.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 56.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Coyle
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
22
(51 meetings)
29
22
Coyle
Aho
Last 10: Coyle 7-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
7
13
Coyle
Aho
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
17
4
Coyle
Aho
21 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Coyle
Aho
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,898)
50.2% (6,646)
-0.8%
Power Play
50.0% (794)
58.9% (1,310)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,100)
46.5% (465)
-3.0%
On power play, Aho has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,015).
Coyle shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Coyle
Aho
Home
49.8% (4,865)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
47.9% (4,927)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Coyle
Aho
P1
49.5%
51.1%
P2
48.3%
52.1%
P3
48.8%
50.8%
OT
49.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
48.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:19 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:06 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:29 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:22 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:22 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |