Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Nosek 53.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 62.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 85.1%
Neutral zone
Nosek 68.9%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Coyle
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Coyle
Nosek
Last 10: Coyle 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
Coyle
Nosek
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
0
Coyle
Nosek
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
1
Coyle
Nosek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (7,898)
54.9% (2,710)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (794)
45.8% (48)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,100)
47.2% (428)
-3.7%
On even strength, Nosek has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,015).
Coyle shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Coyle
Nosek
Home
49.8% (4,865)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
47.9% (4,927)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Coyle
Nosek
P1
49.5%
52.2%
P2
48.3%
54.1%
P3
48.8%
54.7%
OT
49.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 26, 2017 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |