Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Larkin 52.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dvorak 70.7%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 70.6%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 65.4%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Dvorak
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Dvorak
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Larkin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
51.1% (915)
+3.1%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
59.4% (261)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
48.2% (168)
-1.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Larkin
Home
53.9% (497)
51.7% (686)
Away
53.3% (522)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Dvorak
Larkin
P1
54.6%
52.5%
P2
53.2%
52.7%
P3
54.3%
51.4%
OT
34.8%
61.3%
Final 5 min
46.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |