Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Staal 54.6% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 53.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 52.7%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 50.3%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Dvorak
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Dvorak
Staal
Last 10: Dvorak 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dvorak
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
4
Dvorak
Staal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
1
Dvorak
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
56.2% (989)
-2.0%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
66.0% (159)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
42.7% (253)
+3.7%
On power play, Staal has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Staal
Home
53.9% (497)
55.4% (699)
Away
53.3% (522)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Dvorak
Staal
P1
54.6%
55.7%
P2
53.2%
54.7%
P3
54.3%
53.4%
OT
34.8%
70.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:20 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 04:31 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:47 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |