Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Frost 56.4% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 74.4%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 65.4%
Neutral zone
Frost 59.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Dvorak
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dvorak
Frost
Last 5: Dvorak 3-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Dvorak
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
1
0
Dvorak
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
56.0% (755)
-1.8%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
60.1% (173)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
88.9% (9)
-42.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +42.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Frost
Home
53.9% (497)
57.3% (497)
Away
53.3% (522)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Dvorak
Frost
P1
54.6%
60.2%
P2
53.2%
56.0%
P3
54.3%
54.8%
OT
34.8%
63.6%
Final 5 min
46.1%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:02 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 1 | 14:29 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |