Christian Dvorak vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.1%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 58.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Last 10: Dvorak 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Dvorak
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
0
Dvorak
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Dvorak
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
49.7% (1,038)
+4.5%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
63.7% (157)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
34.4% (32)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dvorak is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Dvorak shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Home
53.9% (497)
53.1% (618)
Away
53.3% (522)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Dvorak
MacKinnon
P1
54.6%
49.3%
P2
53.2%
53.0%
P3
54.3%
50.7%
OT
34.8%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 03:52 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |