Christian Dvorak vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Christian Dvorak holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dvorak on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 24 meetings). Dvorak wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.1% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Dvorak leads 53-37 in 90 meetings
Offensive zone
Dvorak 62.9%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 88.1%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 86.1%
Result
Christian Dvorak favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
53
-
37
(90 meetings)
53
37
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Last 10: Dvorak 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
16
17
Dvorak
MacKinnon
33 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
17
7
Dvorak
MacKinnon
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
20
13
Dvorak
MacKinnon
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (6,785)
46.1% (11,264)
+7.0%
Power Play
55.7% (1,012)
53.2% (1,421)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (889)
42.8% (502)
+8.0%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Dvorak is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,096).
Dvorak shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Dvorak
MacKinnon
Home
54.7% (4,151)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
51.7% (4,535)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Dvorak
MacKinnon
P1
54.5%
47.4%
P2
51.9%
46.6%
P3
53.1%
46.1%
OT
56.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 18:57 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 03:52 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | OT | 03:08 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | OT | 02:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 22, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |